The short answer: there's no single success rate for The Sinclair Method, but naltrexone, the medicine it uses, is well established. The World Health Organization lists it as an essential medicine for alcohol use disorder, and UK clinical guidelines describe it as a first-line treatment.1,2 In controlled trials of taking it before drinking, the Sinclair Method way, people cut their heavy and binge drinking more than people taking a placebo.3,4
The figure you'll often see, 78%, comes from Dr John David Sinclair's own clinics in Finland. It's an encouraging result, but it can't tell you your own chance of success. More on that below.5,6
Does The Sinclair Method work?
Yes, the controlled trials show it can help people drink less, especially with support alongside. In these trials, some people take naltrexone and others take a placebo, so you can see what the medicine itself adds.3,4,7,8
The Sinclair Method means taking naltrexone, a prescription medicine, before drinking. The idea is that, over time, drinking becomes less rewarding, so the desire to drink gradually eases. Here's what the trials found.
Finland, 2001: 121 people
People took naltrexone or a placebo daily for 12 weeks, then only when they felt a craving for a further 20 weeks. Naltrexone made the biggest difference for people who also had coping-skills sessions: 27% of them had no return to heavy drinking over the 32 weeks, compared with 3% on placebo. For people given general support only, it didn't beat placebo, and about a third of people had left the trial by the end.3
United States, 2003 and 2006: around 150 problem drinkers in each
People took a tablet, either naltrexone or a placebo, ahead of situations they saw as high risk. Planning ahead like this helped people drink less even on a placebo, and naltrexone added to that. In the 2006 study, everyone also had brief coping-skills sessions.7,8
United States, 2022: 120 men who binge drink
In this trial of sexual and gender minority men with mild to moderate alcohol problems, naltrexone taken before likely drinking, with weekly counselling, led to 26% fewer binge-drinking days than placebo over 12 weeks, and fewer drinks overall. Six months after treatment ended, the people who'd taken naltrexone were still drinking less than those who'd had a placebo.4
The bigger picture
A Cochrane review of 50 trials and nearly 8,000 people found naltrexone lowered the risk of heavy drinking by about a sixth compared with placebo, and concluded it appears effective and safe.9 A 2023 review of 118 trials concluded that naltrexone is a first-line medicine for alcohol problems, alongside support.10 Most of these trials used a daily dose, rather than the "targeted" approach Dr Sinclair championed of taking it before drinking.
In 2023, the World Health Organization added naltrexone to its list of essential medicines. Its expert committee noted that naltrexone's benefits may be greater in people whose drinking is driven by reward, which is what The Sinclair Method is designed to work on.1 WHO guidance also recommends medicine and psychosocial support together for alcohol dependence.11 UK clinical guidelines describe naltrexone, taken daily, as a first-line treatment to prevent relapse, as part of a psychosocial treatment plan.2 NICE also recommends a related medicine, nalmefene, taken on days when drinking is likely, for some adults with alcohol dependence who want to cut down, always with ongoing support. It's a different medicine, and NICE's guidance isn't about The Sinclair Method itself.12
Put simply: the research shows real, modest reductions in heavy and binge drinking in the groups studied, and the results are strongest when people have support alongside. It can't promise any one person a result, and the longest controlled follow-ups we know of run to around six months after treatment ends.
Sinclair Method success stories: real-life experience
Trials only tell part of the story. Alongside them, a growing number of people are sharing their own experience of The Sinclair Method, in books, on podcasts, in online communities and on social media. Awareness is growing, and so is the number of people who say it helped them change their relationship with alcohol.
Personal stories aren't clinical evidence. They're known as anecdotal evidence, and they can't tell you what will happen for you. But they matter, in the same way you'd read other people's reviews before any big decision. They show what change can look like in real life, from people who've lived it.
I'm one of those real-life stories. The Sinclair Method is how I got my choice back around drinking. Today alcohol is a non-issue for me: I rarely even think about it. It changed my life enough that I wanted to share this option with the world, and that's why I started Rethink Drink. You can see the early part of my journey on my YouTube channel.
You can also read what our own clients say in our reviews on Trustpilot.
Where does the 78% come from?
You'll often see The Sinclair Method described as having a 78% success rate. It comes from Dr Sinclair's own clinics in Finland in the 1990s, where people took naltrexone before drinking, alongside counselling, for around 110 days. Over that time, their craving for alcohol steadily went down. He first reported the figure in 1998 and described it again in 2001.5,6 In his words:
"Of the 147 patients who had completed enough treatment to be classified, 115 (78%) were considered successful."6
On average, those 115 people had cut down to about nine drinks a week. And 38 of the 147 (26%) had stopped drinking altogether, even though only 3% had set that as their goal.6
That's an encouraging result from real patients, and it's a big part of why the method spread. It just isn't the kind of figure that can promise you a result:
- It only counts the people who stayed in treatment long enough to be assessed. The paper doesn't say how many started.6
- There was no placebo group to compare with, so we can't tell how much of the change came from the naltrexone itself.
- The paper doesn't set out how "successful" was defined, and we haven't found any independent check of the clinic records.6
Dr Sinclair's team also followed up some of these patients around two and a half years later. Of those who replied, all 27 who were still taking naltrexone before drinking said they were drinking less than before treatment, compared with 8 of the 30 who had stopped taking it. It's a small, self-reported follow-up with no comparison group, but it's the longest look at the approach we have.6
Where we stand on the 78%
We used to quote the 78% ourselves, like most people in this field. When we went back to the original papers, we decided the fuller picture was more useful to you, and that the trials make a strong case on their own. If you spot the old figure on an older page of ours, it's on our list to update.
What does success look like?
Success looks different for everyone. For some people it's fewer drinks on the nights they do drink. For others it's more alcohol-free days, or less alcohol noise in their head about the next one. Some people decide to stop altogether, and that's their call to make, now or later.
That fits the evidence too. The World Health Organization counts reducing drinking, not only stopping, as a goal of treatment,13 and Dr Sinclair wrote that success should be judged by "the health and satisfaction of the patients".6
"Control is the goal" is something we say a lot at Rethink Drink, because success isn't a number in a study. It's drinking becoming your choice again. We track your drinking with you, week by week, so you can see what's changing for yourself. Data over drama.
Wondering whether The Sinclair Method is a cure? We've answered that honestly here.
What to expect
The Sinclair Method isn't a quick fix, and naltrexone isn't a magic pill. It's gradual by design, and anyone who gives you an exact timeline is guessing. It depends on taking the medication as your prescriber directs, having patience, trusting the process, and knowing what you want to get out of it. Progress, not perfection.
Support makes a real difference. Naltrexone is studied and recommended as part of a package with support, not on its own.
Support matters, and so does the kind of support
The World Health Organization found that naltrexone with psychosocial support works better than either on its own.11
In Dr Sinclair's review of the trials, naltrexone's benefits showed up with coping-skills therapy, which accepts that slips happen, but not with support that demanded complete abstinence.6
Want to see how this works in practice? Start with our free mini-course.
In the key Finnish trial, naltrexone helped most for people who also had coping-skills sessions.3 That's why coaching sits at the heart of what we do: planning ahead, staying consistent, and building the skills for the moments that decide whether change sticks. Our coaching itself hasn't been tested in a trial, and we won't pretend otherwise. But it's built around what those programmes worked on, and on our own experience, refined over thousands of coaching calls with our clients. Every medical decision is made by our prescriber, Professor Jonathan Chick.
Is The Sinclair Method right for you?
The Sinclair Method is one route, not the only one. Some people do best stopping altogether with support. There are other medicines, such as acamprosate, as well as talking therapies and free local alcohol services. The NHS sets out the options: alcohol-use disorder, treatment and support.14 The right choice is the one that fits you.
Whether naltrexone is suitable for you is a medical decision, made after a consultation. It usually isn't suitable, or needs extra care, if you:
- are dependent on opioids, or take or may need opioid medicines such as codeine, tramadol or morphine, including some cough and diarrhoea remedies.15
- have liver or kidney problems.15
- are pregnant or breastfeeding.15
If you drink heavily every day, please don't stop or cut down sharply without medical advice. As the NHS puts it, "It can be very dangerous to stop drinking suddenly if you're dependent on alcohol." Call 999 or go to A&E if you or someone else has severe withdrawal symptoms, such as shaking visibly, confusion, seeing or hearing things that aren't there, or a seizure.14
How to start The Sinclair Method in the UK
- Curious? The easiest first step is our free mini-course. It explains The Sinclair Method from the beginning, privately, at your own pace.
- Prefer to talk it through? You can book a call whenever you're ready.
- Ready to start? Our programme options are here.
Sources
- World Health Organization. Model List of Essential Medicines, 2023: naltrexone, medicines for alcohol use disorders. list.essentialmeds.org
- Department of Health and Social Care. UK clinical guidelines for alcohol treatment: pharmacological interventions (updated July 2026). gov.uk
- Heinälä P and colleagues. Targeted use of naltrexone without prior detoxification in the treatment of alcohol dependence. Journal of Clinical Psychopharmacology, 2001. PubMed 11386491
- Santos GM and colleagues. Targeted oral naltrexone for mild to moderate alcohol use disorder among sexual and gender minority men. American Journal of Psychiatry, 2022. PubMed 36285404
- Sinclair JD. New treatment options for substance abuse from a public health viewpoint. Annals of Medicine, 1998. PubMed 9783840
- Sinclair JD. Evidence about the use of naltrexone and for different ways of using it in the treatment of alcoholism. Alcohol and Alcoholism, 2001. academic.oup.com
- Kranzler HR and colleagues. Targeted naltrexone for early problem drinkers. Journal of Clinical Psychopharmacology, 2003. PubMed 12826991
- Hernandez-Avila CA and colleagues. Targeted versus daily naltrexone. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, 2006. PubMed 16634855
- Rösner S and colleagues. Opioid antagonists for alcohol dependence. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2010. PubMed 21154349
- McPheeters M and colleagues. Pharmacotherapy for alcohol use disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA, 2023. PubMed 37934220
- World Health Organization. mhGAP guideline for mental, neurological and substance use disorders, 2023: combined psychosocial and medicine treatment for alcohol dependence. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- NICE. Nalmefene for reducing alcohol consumption in people with alcohol dependence (TA325). nice.org.uk
- WHO and UNODC. SDG indicator 3.5.1 metadata: coverage of treatment interventions for substance use disorders. un.org
- NHS. Alcohol-use disorder. nhs.uk
- British National Formulary (BNF). Naltrexone hydrochloride. bnf.nice.org.uk
This page was last updated on 27 September 2026.
